State of the field: Why novel prediction matters
نویسندگان
چکیده
There is considerable disagreement about the epistemic value of novel predictive success, i.e. when a scientist predicts an unexpected phenomenon, experiments are conducted, and the prediction proves to be accurate. We survey the field on this question, noting both fully articulated views such as weak and strong predictivism, and more nascent views, such as pluralist reasons for the instrumental value of prediction. By examining the various reasons offered for the value of prediction across a range of inferential contexts (including inferences from data to phenomena, from phenomena to theory, and from theory to framework), we can see that neither weak nor strong predictivism captures all of the reasons for valuing prediction available. A third path is presented, Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism; PIP for short. Imagine three scientists. The first uses her theory to make a novel prediction, tests it, and the prediction is successful, garnering support for her theory. The second collects some evidence, and then alters her theory to accommodate the evidence. The third secretly gathers some evidence in her lab, accommodates her theory to the evidence, then publicly makes a prediction using her new theory that the evidence she already gathered will obtain (which it does again). The third scientist is obviously deceiving people about something; more than that, the deception seems to undercut the legitimacy of her results. As Gardner writes, it seems that lying about whether one had actually predicted or only accommodated evidence “would be a form of scientific dishonesty akin to fabricating experimental results” (Gardner, 1982, p. 11). But why should the third scientist’s misbehaviour seem relevant to the evidential status of her results? A natural answer is that she is 1 This paper was entirely collaborative, and authors are listed in alphabetical order.
منابع مشابه
On Management Matters: Why We Must Improve Public Health Management Through Action; Comment on “Management Matters: A Leverage Point for Health Systems Strengthening in Global Health”
Public health management is a pillar of public health practice. Only through effective management can research, theory, and scientific innovation be translated into successful public health action. With this in mind, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has developed an innovative program called Improving Public Health Management for Action (IMPACT) which aims to address th...
متن کاملStatus of PM10 as an air pollutant and its prediction using meteorological parameters in Ahvaz, Iran
In the present study, air quality analyses for particulate matters (PM10) were conductedin Ahvaz, a city in the south of Iran. The measurements were taken from 2009 through2010 in two different locations to prepare average data for the city. The averageconcentrations were calculated for every 24 hours, and each month and each season whichshowed the highest concentration of PM10 in the morning w...
متن کاملSimulation and Control of Rotational Vibration of Sprayer Boom Using a Novel Suspension System
Sprayers are important tools in agriculture that usually moved on the field by tractor. Sprayers should distribute the constant rate of chemicals during various conditions encountered in the field. Unwanted vibrations of sprayer boom cause redaction of its life time and over doses and under doses of chemical sprayed on the field. Therefore, in this study a model of suspension system for rotatio...
متن کاملIntroduction of a Novel Two-Dimensional Equation of State to Predict Gas Equilibrium Adsorption in Highly-Nonideal Systems
Abstract The accurate calculations of adsorption equilibrium for multicomponent gas systems are of great importance in many applications. In this paper, five two-dimensional equations of state 2D-EOS, i.e. Van der Waals, Eyring, Zhou-Ghasem-Robinson, Soave-Redlich-Kwong and Peng-Robinson, were examined to find out their abilities to predict adsorption equilibrium for pure and multi-component ga...
متن کامل